Gary Shilling Forecasts a ‘Major Global Recession’
March 18, 2020 by Bernice Napach
Economist and money manager Gary Shilling, who correctly forecast the global financial crisis of 2008 and the U.S. recession in the mid-1970s, now says the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic “all but assures a major global recession.”
The global economy was already slowing before the coronavirus hit and now, weeks after economies in China, Iran and Europe slumped because of its spread, U.S. consumer spending — “the only area of global economic strength” — is faltering due to “the virtual closing down of many segments of the U.S. economy, writes Shilling in a note he published Monday.
“Weakening economies don’t take much of a shock to push them into recession, and the coronavirus shock appears to have done so,” writes Shilling. The rapid speed of the virus’ spread and the extent of that spread — which remains unknown because millions of people have yet to be tested — “are inducing global panic,” he writes.